Bowl Preview Special: Part 1 (Poinsettia - Holiday)
Bowl season begins in a week. Over the next week I'll provide game previews for every bowl, 8 at a time. Some good stuff in here that should raise eyebrows. The first bunch of games have a lot of mismatches, but the way this season went, nothing is a mismatch. I'm excited to get started. Are you?
What: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Who: Utah vs. Navy
Where/When: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA. December 20, 9 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Utah -8.5
Eisentower30's pick: Navy +8.5
Why: Navy's got one hell of an offense (39.9 ppg), while Utah has one hell of a streak (won last 6 bowl games). 8.5 points is a lot. Especially against a decent squad with a great coach who is trying to build his already impressive resume. Usually I'd say a coach in limbo makes for a distracted team, but here I think we've got a level-headed group with a coach that has a chance to really show how good he is to the world. Navy should play their best game. They surely must feel like a great team after the way they beat Army. But Utah just has too much going for them, including a top-notch defense that doesn't give up many points (15.6 ppg). But they haven't seen this crazy Navy ground attack. Although the Utes only score 25.5 ppg on offense, we've seen how the Navy defense plays; hardly at all. So the question is the spread. Although I think Utah should come out on top, I just can't see Navy's offense allowing them to fall more than a touchdown behind this team.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Utah 45 Navy 31
Predicted Score: Utah 38 Navy 35
Confidence:
What: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Who: Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
Where/When: The Superdome, New Orleans, LA. December 21, 8 pm, ESPN2
Spread (as of 12/12): Florida Atlantic -2.5
Eisentower30's pick: Memphis +2.5
Why: Can you believe this? FAU has been playing football for 7 years and they are already being favored in bowl games. These two teams are very similar statistically. Personally, I think this game should be even. But it's not. And I just can't give FAU points in it's first bowl game ever. But that's not enough. Let's look at this: FAU is 1-4 against the spread when favored, while Memphis is 46-41 against the spread as an underdog. That's a telling number right there. And it tells me enough. Almost as much as Memphis' last game in a season dedicated to a dead teammate. Not to mention Memphis went 5-1 in their final half of the season.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: FAU 27 Memphis 24
Predicted Score: Memphis 27 FAU 24
Confidence:
What: PapaJohns.com Bowl
Who: #22 Cincinnati vs. Southern Mississippi
Where/When: Legion Field, Birmingham, AL. December 22, 1 pm, ESPN2
Spread (as of 12/12): Cincinnati -11
Eisentower30's pick: Cincinnati -11
Why: Seems like a mismatch to me. There is an interesting similarity here that is actually a difference. Both coaches are in limbo. Although Cincy's coach isn't making a fuss about it, he could be benefitting from his program's turnaround as soon as this offseason. But he more closely resembles Paul Johnson of Navy in his situation. On the other hand, Southern Miss doesn't even have a coach. That program is in a whirlwind of confusion. So much so that ESPN even reports Brett Favre is upset. Anyway, on to the numbers. Cincinnati's offense is talented (36.7 ppg) as is their defense (18.6 ppg). Match that against Southern Miss' offense (28.3 ppg) and defense (23.6 ppg) and you've got the makings of a mismatch. I'm going to run with Cincy's abnormally great season. By the way, Cincy is 6-3 ATS vs. Southern Miss in the past 15 years.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Cincinnati 34 Southern Mississippi 20
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 27 Southern Mississippi 10
Confidence:
What: New Mexico Bowl
Who: New Mexico vs. Nevada
Where/When: Albuquerque, NM. December 22, 4:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): New Mexico -3
Eisentower30's pick:
Why: This is the toughest game for me to call. I really like Nevada and their future superstar QB Colin Kaepernick. He can do it all while looking like the next tackle will rip him into shreds. But why does this game even exist? What is the point of creating the New Mexico Bowl and, for the 2nd straight year, having it at one of the contestant's home field? Doesn't really matter, though, since New Mexico lost last year to San Jose State. Nevada also lost its bowl game last year, but by only 1 to Miami. Either way, this game doesn't impress me much, but I'm going to have to go with the home team who has been playing well this season (5-1) in the "Land of Enchantment." But here's the thing, both these teams are miniature versions of Virginia and play every game close. Nevada is 18-7 ATS since 2004. New Mexico has only allowed 20.8 ppg at home, while Nevada has allowed 41.7 ppg on the road.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: New Mexico 38 Nevada 28
Predicted Score: New Mexico 45 Nevada 38
Confidence:
What: Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
Who: UCLA vs. #17 BYU
Where/When: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV. December 22, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): BYU -6.5
Eisentower30's pick: BYU -6.5
Why: I am intrigued by this matchup. Overachiever (BYU) vs. Underachiever (UCLA). Ranked as high as #11 before biting the bullet and spiraling downhill with a 4-6 record after a promising 2-0 start, UCLA deserves to be an underdog. But at the same time, they already beat BYU this year. 27-17, too. But there is no question who the better team is this time around. BYU went 9-1 after that UCLA loss. The teams have flip-flopped. Combine that with the revenge factor and you got a good old-fashioned butt-whoopin'. And on an I'm-only-guessing-but-I-think-I'm-right note, don't forget this game is taking place in Las Vegas. So-Cal party boys vs. Brigham Young Mormons. Who will have more discipline to stay focused do you think? Yea, me too. Plus, I'll take the line at 6.5 before it gets to 7 and I lose that valuable half-point.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: UCLA 53 BYU 9 (WHOA!)
Predicted Score: BYU 27 UCLA 20
Confidence:
What: Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Who: Boise St. vs. East Carolina
Where/When: December 23, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Boise St. -10.5
Eisentower30's pick: Boise St. -10.5
Why: I don't think ECU has a snowball's chance in hell at even coming close to covering here. Boise has been to Hawaii plenty of times for conference play. I don't care if they lose or win there because they aren't playing Hawaii. They're playing the purple people eaters, or something like that. In fact, I feel bad for ECU. Let me hand you some numbers here. Boise State is 10-2 overall, while ECU went 7-5. ECU gives up just about 30 ppg on defense to Boise State's 20 ppg allowed. Offensively, Boise St. scores 42.7 ppg vs. ECU's 30.2. Boise State lives and breathes turf, going 41-22 on it since 1992. ECU is 13-17 on turf in those same 15 years. Ouch. Toss in Ian Johnson and the Broncos should have fun here.
NCAA Football 2008 Predicted Score: Boise St. 51 ECU 28
Confidence:
What: Motor City Bowl
Who: Central Michigan vs. Purdue
Where/When: Ford Field, Detroit, MI. December 26, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Purdue -9
Eisentower30's pick: Central Michigan +9
Why: This may be a better game than people give it credit for. Purdue didn't finish strong, especially considering their 5-0 start. They buckled in the Big Ten and had problems recovering. Yet, Central Michigan went 7-2 including the MAC Championship after a 1-3 start. All on the arms and legs of dual-threat QB Dan Le(I Got A)Fevour. He's good. Very good. But flashback to September 15 and you'll see Purdue's massacre of the Chippewas 45-22. Yet, with a full season under their belt, will CMU have learned from their mistakes? I think so. I also think with the final game of the season, the Chips will play that much harder. Note: Since 2004, CMU is 7-2 ATS as an underdog and Purdue is 3-8 ATS as a favorite. Central Michigan's 2007 defense allowed 35.8 ppg, while Purdue gave up 24.7 ppg. We all know Purdue will win. But by how much? Not 9.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Purdue 45 Central Michigan 35
Predicted Score: Purdue 35 Central Michigan 31
Confidence:
What: Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Who: #11 Arizona St. vs. #19 Texas
Where/When: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA. December 28, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Texas -2
Eisentower30's pick: Texas -2
Why: What a matchup! And it's not even New Year's yet. You know what the best part is? I'll be at this game. In addition to the Orange Bowl, I'm going to the Holiday Bowl. I couldn't be happier with these two teams. Picking the outcome may prove to be the hard part here. Only 2 points separate the two teams in the spread and it seems fitting. By kickoff the line may be even. Both teams suck in bowl games (Since 1992: Texas 4-8, ASU 3-5). It's about matchup here. It should be a high-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. If it comes down to Colt McCoy driving the Longhorns down the field for a game winner, I'll take Texas. ASU's QB Rudy Carpenter is an extremely emotional guy and thrives on it. If it's up to him, I'll go with the Sun Devils. So what (not who) is the kicker? Jamaal "So good they gave him 2 A's" Charles. He is unstoppable, specifically in the 4th quarter. Because of him, I can't help but see ASU fighting from behind the entire 2nd half.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Texas 53 Arizona St. 45
Predicted Score: Texas 45 Arizona St. 38
Confidence:
What: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Who: Utah vs. Navy
Where/When: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA. December 20, 9 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Utah -8.5
Eisentower30's pick: Navy +8.5
Why: Navy's got one hell of an offense (39.9 ppg), while Utah has one hell of a streak (won last 6 bowl games). 8.5 points is a lot. Especially against a decent squad with a great coach who is trying to build his already impressive resume. Usually I'd say a coach in limbo makes for a distracted team, but here I think we've got a level-headed group with a coach that has a chance to really show how good he is to the world. Navy should play their best game. They surely must feel like a great team after the way they beat Army. But Utah just has too much going for them, including a top-notch defense that doesn't give up many points (15.6 ppg). But they haven't seen this crazy Navy ground attack. Although the Utes only score 25.5 ppg on offense, we've seen how the Navy defense plays; hardly at all. So the question is the spread. Although I think Utah should come out on top, I just can't see Navy's offense allowing them to fall more than a touchdown behind this team.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Utah 45 Navy 31
Predicted Score: Utah 38 Navy 35
Confidence:
What: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Who: Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
Where/When: The Superdome, New Orleans, LA. December 21, 8 pm, ESPN2
Spread (as of 12/12): Florida Atlantic -2.5
Eisentower30's pick: Memphis +2.5
Why: Can you believe this? FAU has been playing football for 7 years and they are already being favored in bowl games. These two teams are very similar statistically. Personally, I think this game should be even. But it's not. And I just can't give FAU points in it's first bowl game ever. But that's not enough. Let's look at this: FAU is 1-4 against the spread when favored, while Memphis is 46-41 against the spread as an underdog. That's a telling number right there. And it tells me enough. Almost as much as Memphis' last game in a season dedicated to a dead teammate. Not to mention Memphis went 5-1 in their final half of the season.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: FAU 27 Memphis 24
Predicted Score: Memphis 27 FAU 24
Confidence:
What: PapaJohns.com Bowl
Who: #22 Cincinnati vs. Southern Mississippi
Where/When: Legion Field, Birmingham, AL. December 22, 1 pm, ESPN2
Spread (as of 12/12): Cincinnati -11
Eisentower30's pick: Cincinnati -11
Why: Seems like a mismatch to me. There is an interesting similarity here that is actually a difference. Both coaches are in limbo. Although Cincy's coach isn't making a fuss about it, he could be benefitting from his program's turnaround as soon as this offseason. But he more closely resembles Paul Johnson of Navy in his situation. On the other hand, Southern Miss doesn't even have a coach. That program is in a whirlwind of confusion. So much so that ESPN even reports Brett Favre is upset. Anyway, on to the numbers. Cincinnati's offense is talented (36.7 ppg) as is their defense (18.6 ppg). Match that against Southern Miss' offense (28.3 ppg) and defense (23.6 ppg) and you've got the makings of a mismatch. I'm going to run with Cincy's abnormally great season. By the way, Cincy is 6-3 ATS vs. Southern Miss in the past 15 years.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Cincinnati 34 Southern Mississippi 20
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 27 Southern Mississippi 10
Confidence:
What: New Mexico Bowl
Who: New Mexico vs. Nevada
Where/When: Albuquerque, NM. December 22, 4:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): New Mexico -3
Eisentower30's pick:
Why: This is the toughest game for me to call. I really like Nevada and their future superstar QB Colin Kaepernick. He can do it all while looking like the next tackle will rip him into shreds. But why does this game even exist? What is the point of creating the New Mexico Bowl and, for the 2nd straight year, having it at one of the contestant's home field? Doesn't really matter, though, since New Mexico lost last year to San Jose State. Nevada also lost its bowl game last year, but by only 1 to Miami. Either way, this game doesn't impress me much, but I'm going to have to go with the home team who has been playing well this season (5-1) in the "Land of Enchantment." But here's the thing, both these teams are miniature versions of Virginia and play every game close. Nevada is 18-7 ATS since 2004. New Mexico has only allowed 20.8 ppg at home, while Nevada has allowed 41.7 ppg on the road.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: New Mexico 38 Nevada 28
Predicted Score: New Mexico 45 Nevada 38
Confidence:
What: Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
Who: UCLA vs. #17 BYU
Where/When: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV. December 22, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): BYU -6.5
Eisentower30's pick: BYU -6.5
Why: I am intrigued by this matchup. Overachiever (BYU) vs. Underachiever (UCLA). Ranked as high as #11 before biting the bullet and spiraling downhill with a 4-6 record after a promising 2-0 start, UCLA deserves to be an underdog. But at the same time, they already beat BYU this year. 27-17, too. But there is no question who the better team is this time around. BYU went 9-1 after that UCLA loss. The teams have flip-flopped. Combine that with the revenge factor and you got a good old-fashioned butt-whoopin'. And on an I'm-only-guessing-but-I-think-I'm-right note, don't forget this game is taking place in Las Vegas. So-Cal party boys vs. Brigham Young Mormons. Who will have more discipline to stay focused do you think? Yea, me too. Plus, I'll take the line at 6.5 before it gets to 7 and I lose that valuable half-point.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: UCLA 53 BYU 9 (WHOA!)
Predicted Score: BYU 27 UCLA 20
Confidence:
What: Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Who: Boise St. vs. East Carolina
Where/When: December 23, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Boise St. -10.5
Eisentower30's pick: Boise St. -10.5
Why: I don't think ECU has a snowball's chance in hell at even coming close to covering here. Boise has been to Hawaii plenty of times for conference play. I don't care if they lose or win there because they aren't playing Hawaii. They're playing the purple people eaters, or something like that. In fact, I feel bad for ECU. Let me hand you some numbers here. Boise State is 10-2 overall, while ECU went 7-5. ECU gives up just about 30 ppg on defense to Boise State's 20 ppg allowed. Offensively, Boise St. scores 42.7 ppg vs. ECU's 30.2. Boise State lives and breathes turf, going 41-22 on it since 1992. ECU is 13-17 on turf in those same 15 years. Ouch. Toss in Ian Johnson and the Broncos should have fun here.
NCAA Football 2008 Predicted Score: Boise St. 51 ECU 28
Confidence:
What: Motor City Bowl
Who: Central Michigan vs. Purdue
Where/When: Ford Field, Detroit, MI. December 26, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Purdue -9
Eisentower30's pick: Central Michigan +9
Why: This may be a better game than people give it credit for. Purdue didn't finish strong, especially considering their 5-0 start. They buckled in the Big Ten and had problems recovering. Yet, Central Michigan went 7-2 including the MAC Championship after a 1-3 start. All on the arms and legs of dual-threat QB Dan Le(I Got A)Fevour. He's good. Very good. But flashback to September 15 and you'll see Purdue's massacre of the Chippewas 45-22. Yet, with a full season under their belt, will CMU have learned from their mistakes? I think so. I also think with the final game of the season, the Chips will play that much harder. Note: Since 2004, CMU is 7-2 ATS as an underdog and Purdue is 3-8 ATS as a favorite. Central Michigan's 2007 defense allowed 35.8 ppg, while Purdue gave up 24.7 ppg. We all know Purdue will win. But by how much? Not 9.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Purdue 45 Central Michigan 35
Predicted Score: Purdue 35 Central Michigan 31
Confidence:
What: Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Who: #11 Arizona St. vs. #19 Texas
Where/When: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA. December 28, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/12): Texas -2
Eisentower30's pick: Texas -2
Why: What a matchup! And it's not even New Year's yet. You know what the best part is? I'll be at this game. In addition to the Orange Bowl, I'm going to the Holiday Bowl. I couldn't be happier with these two teams. Picking the outcome may prove to be the hard part here. Only 2 points separate the two teams in the spread and it seems fitting. By kickoff the line may be even. Both teams suck in bowl games (Since 1992: Texas 4-8, ASU 3-5). It's about matchup here. It should be a high-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. If it comes down to Colt McCoy driving the Longhorns down the field for a game winner, I'll take Texas. ASU's QB Rudy Carpenter is an extremely emotional guy and thrives on it. If it's up to him, I'll go with the Sun Devils. So what (not who) is the kicker? Jamaal "So good they gave him 2 A's" Charles. He is unstoppable, specifically in the 4th quarter. Because of him, I can't help but see ASU fighting from behind the entire 2nd half.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Texas 53 Arizona St. 45
Predicted Score: Texas 45 Arizona St. 38
Confidence:
FAU is going to surprise you, trust me on that one. Picking Memphis is a bad idea.
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