Bowl Preview Special: Part 2 (Champs Sports - Bell Armed Forces)
Part 2 of Eisentower30's Bowl Preview Special. The middle 8 games of the most wonderful time of the year. 32 bowl games thrown on us in a non-stop barrage. Doesn't get much better. Enjoy.
What: Champs Sports Bowl
Who: #14 Boston College vs. Michigan State
Where/When: Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL. December 28, 5 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Boston College -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: Boston College -3.5
Why: These are two teams with significantly different history when it comes to bowl games. On one hand you've got Boston College who is 11-3-1 all time in bowl games. They have played in a bowl game every season this millennium and still haven't lost. That's 7 in a row. But each year since 2002 the margin of victory has decreased, with a 1 point victory last year against Navy. So what about Michigan State? They haven't even been to a bowl game since 2003, where they got manhandled 17-3 by Nebraska. So that means nobody on the roster has ever played a down in a bowl game. Experience counts here. Knowing how to handle the long layoff swamped with preparation and rest. But on top of this, I'm looking to BC's senior QB Matt Ryan as the X-factor. It's his last collegiate game. You know he's going to come out guns blazing. And I don't think his teammates will allow themselves to lose another big game. They may have blown a shot at a BCS game, but they will want to finish strong.
Trends: Michigan State: 2-7 ATS in December since '92/ 2-5 in bowl games since '92/ 5-1 against teams with winning record this season/ 34.1 ppg offense, 26.8 ppg defense
Boston College: 8-3 in bowl games since '92/ 7-3 in December since '92/ 28.6 ppg offense, 20.3 ppg defense. 2-3 in the last 5 games (include: 3 points over Clemson, 14 points over Miami)
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Michigan State 33 Boston College 27
Predicted Score: Boston College 31 Michigan State 27
Confidence:
What: Texas Bowl
Who: Houston vs. TCU
Where/When: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX. December 28, 8 pm, NFL Network (what a crock that is)
Spread (as of 12/16): TCU -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: TCU -3.5
Why: Cougars and Horned Frogs. So at least we know one Athletic Director had his head screwed on right. I can never understand why you would name your mascot a "Horned Frog." If there is some history to that, please, do tell. Anyway, I'm sure people will want to bring up the fact that the game is being played in Houston. Well, it's not like TCU stands for Tasty Cracker-Barrel University. I'm sure that place will be split up enough where both sides will be cheered for. So let's look at the matchup. The biggest issue is Houston's lack of a coach. I think this is why the Horned Frogs are favored 3.5 instead of it being an even spread. Now, although TCU has a top notch defense (allowed only 19.2 ppg) they are facing a top notch Houston offense (36.2 ppg). Yet, isn't that the head coach's doing? TCU has gotten progressively worse since their nearly undefeated season in 2005 (11-1, 11-2, 7-5). I'm not saying they are on the decline, but they sure as heck aren't getting better. Yet, TCU is 2-0 in their last 2 bowl games, which shows experience in the big game. Meanwhile, Houston is 0-2 in their last 2 bowl games. I like the better team who knows who their coach is. Houston has only been decent because of coach Art Brites' offensive scheme anyway.
Trends: TCU: 26.6 ppg offense, 19.2 ppg defense.
Houston: 36.2 ppg offense, 29.9 ppg defense.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: TCU 45 Houston 38
Predicted Score: TCU 52 Houston 28
Confidence:
What: Emerald Bowl
Who: Oregon State vs. Maryland
Where/When: AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA. December 28, 8:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Oregon St. -5
Eisentower30's pick: Maryland +5
Why: Two hopeful seasons gone terribly wrong. You got two pissed off squads who know they deserve better than a game sponsored by nuts. Although I do love the commercials. And I have to say, seeing the former site of Barry Bonds' steroid-induced home run binge turned into a football stadium is kind of cool. What was I talking about? Oh yeah, the game. Maryland has been Jekyll and Hype this season. No, I didn't misspell anything. Every time they get on TV, the commentators can't shut up about the talent. Keon Lattimore this, Lance Ball that. About Ralph Freidgen's eating habits ( visual aid). Or bringing up Lattimore is the younger brother of Ray Lewis. But wait, does Oregon State even have a single well-known player to talk about? Don't give me anything about who's playing on whose coast. Maryland will have plenty of time to adjust when they get there a few days early. So what if Oregon State beat an overrated, but still #2 at the time, California team on the road and #17 Oregon (without Dennis Dixon) on the road. Don't forget their 24-3 beatdown at the hands of USC. They are just as inconsistent as Maryland. At least Maryland played teams close, besides West Virginia. They beat a rolling #10 Rutgers team 34-24 on the road, lost to #19 Virginia by a point, and were a touchdown short of #8 Boston College. I know I've said some nasty things about the Terrapins today, but I still think they are the better team.
Trends: Maryland: 24.9 ppg offense, 21.6 ppg defense. 3-1 ATS in bowl games since '92. 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-10 points this season.
Oregon State: 28.4 ppg offense, 23.3 ppg defense. 3-3 ATS in bowl games since '92. 1-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points this season.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Oregon State 45 Maryland 28
Predicted Score: Oregon State 27 Maryland 26
Confidence:
What: Meineke Car Care Bowl
Who: #25 Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Where/When: Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. December 29, 1 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Wake Forest -3
Eisentower30's pick: Wake Forest -3
Why: This game is really tough to call. It's going to have to come down to the wire. Neither team really stands out from the other. How similar are they? Both beat Duke. Both lost 17-16 to Virginia. And both schools care more about basketball even though they pretend to love their football teams. This season, when the spreads were +3 to -3, both teams were 3-0 ATS. Creepy. The Huskies are known for their poor road play. UConn went 2-3 on the road, only beating Duke and Pittsburgh. But both teams were spread-covering machines this year (UConn 8-3, Wake 8-4). So, I'm going to count the hanging chads one by one. Here's why I like Wake Forest: 1) UConn's inability to perform away from home.2) Wake is practically playing a home game 80 miles from campus. 3) I feel UConn's focus this year was a Big East title. They got their share of it. What else do they really want/care about? Free 21 point inspection coupons from Meineke if they win? College players don't just give up bowl games after missing some lofty, preseason goal. But I can't see the Huskies getting up enough for this game to cover.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Wake Forest 17 Connecticut 14
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 17
Confidence:
What: Autozone Liberty Bowl
Who: Mississippi State vs. Central Florida
Where/When: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN. December 29, 4:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): UCF -3
Eisentower30's pick: UCF -3 (or 10, or 15)
Why: There is absolutely only one thing that matters in this game. Can Mississippi State stop Kevin Smith? This game is the D-1 equivalent to the D-3 National Championship Game in terms of one player's ability to win the entire game himself. Mount Union is the most dominant dynasty in all of sports today, but it could do nothing to stop Justin Beaver of Whitewater and his 256 yards rushing. That's why we have a new champ. And that is why UCF will destroy Miss. St. I love this game even more since the spread is only 3. Vegas is going to benefit so much by the fact that everybody knows Sylvester Croom and his abilities, while still few know about Kevin Smith. That is a damn shame. The world will discover Kevin Smith after he dumps 200+ yards and 4 TDs on the Croomdogs. Every feel-good story has an ending. Sorry Sly.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: UCF 37 Miss. St. 29
Predicted Score: UCF 35 Miss. St. 13
Confidence:
What: Valero Alamo Bowl
Who: Texas A&M vs. Penn State
Where/When: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX. December 29, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Penn St. -5.5
Eisentower30's pick: Penn St. -5.5
Why: Does anybody else think A&M deserves to be banned from a bowl appearance this season because of their idiot coach? Well, it doesn't matter anymore does it? They'll get embarrassed yet again anyway. When was the last time you remember A&M playing two good games in a row? Look it up. It never happened this season. The big concern should be the fact that everything points to a Penn State defensive showcase. Texas A&M prides itself on the ability to run the ball. The "three-headed monster" as many people call it. What does that make Penn State's rush defense? "Beowulf"? They've allowed 87.9 rush yards per game. 87.9!! Remember what happened to A&M at Miami earlier this season? Destroyed. By a team that has nothing good to say about itself for 2007 except a late victory against FSU. Why did the Canes win? They stopped the run. A&M has no chance unless they line up 10 cheeseburgers at the goal line and hand off to Jorvorskie Lane. All hope is lost. Especially if they have to rely on their 187.2 passing yards per game. Or their 416 yards allowed per game. Let's also mention the 500 to 1 factor. This is JoePa's 500th game. A milestone I don't see him adding an "L" to. This will also be game #1 for Aggies interim coach Gary Darnell. Oh, and one more thing. JoePa is 22-10 in bowl games (A&M as a program has only won 8 bowl games). This game could be played at A&M's home field and they'd still lose. Who cares about the Alamodome?
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Texas A&M 37 Penn State 23
Predicted Score: Penn State 24 Texas A&M 2 (I'll at least give them a botched punt in the endzone)
Confidence:
What: Petrosun Independence Bowl
Who: Colorado vs. Alabama
Where/When: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA. December 30, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Alabama -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: Colorado +3.5
Why: Both these teams had games where the only words that come to mind are inexcusable and joke. Alabama's loss to Louisiana-Monroe and Colorado's 47-20 loss to Kansas State were both embarrassing. Looking back at Colorado's season, you can tell they were not focused on the year as a whole, but simply the games that mattered to them. They showed up against Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas Tech. But when they lost, they lost ugly, including 4 of the last 6 games. Same goes for Alabama. Starting off 6-2 wasn't too bad. Both losses were tough teams in Georgia and Florida State. The come the 4 straight losses. First then-#2 LSU (understandable), then Mississippi State (up and coming program), followed by Louisiana-Monroe (who mixed the Gatorade!?) and rival Auburn. It's safe to say they are not a hot team right now. But all that is said and done. By kickoff, It will have been over a month since their last loss. This team can recover mentally. Win this game and work to next season. I think the Tide can do that. With a good coach and some solid players, they have the talent to win. But I'm going to take the points here and the outside chance Colorado wins outright. Some things to take note of: Colorado is 0-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. Alabama is 1-3 as a favorite of 3.5-10 points. Most notably, the Crimson Tide are an abysmal 3-8 ATS all of 2007. On the road, the Tide averaged 17.4 ppg on offense. I'm loving the simulated score here.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Colorado 29 Alabama 28
Predicted Score: Colorado 29 Alabama 28
Confidence:
What: Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Who: Air Force vs. California
Where/When: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX. December 31, 12:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): California -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: California -3.5
Why: Talent vs. Honor. That's what I'm dubbing this game. Air Force is playing in a bowl that sounds made for them, while California can't be happy with where they landed. The service academies always give their best when provided an opportunity to show the world what they've got. They don't always win, but playing hard is easy. I just don't see how they can match up with a team of California's athleticism. They may have struggled at random times this year, but all the Golden Bears need is a good game from DeSean Jackson. The superstar didn't reach anyone's expectations, even the naysayers. Yet, he can still open up a can on any team. If Cal was playing Navy, I'd say Cal has no chance. But it's Air Force. What do they know about playing in a bowl game? About preparing for weeks without a real game? Nothing. The Falcons haven't played in a bowl game since 2003, let alone won one since 2000. So once again you've got a team of guys with zero bowl experience. When you look at numbers, everything changes. Air Force is 9-2 ATS this season. California is 3-9 ATS this season. As a favorite, the Golden Bears are 32-55 ATS since '92, while Air Force is 38-31. It's a tough call because as much as those numbers stand out, I don't want to get caught up in the past. There's got to be a reason a storied football program is only 3.5 point favorites over a service academy. In the end I'm going to say that California has seen much tougher squads than Air Force has this season. Maybe Air Force will forget their winning ways of 6-1 in the 2nd half this year after a 40+ day layoff. Cal wins late.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: California 65 Air Force 10
Predicted Score: California 24 Air Force 20
Confidence:
What: Champs Sports Bowl
Who: #14 Boston College vs. Michigan State
Where/When: Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL. December 28, 5 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Boston College -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: Boston College -3.5
Why: These are two teams with significantly different history when it comes to bowl games. On one hand you've got Boston College who is 11-3-1 all time in bowl games. They have played in a bowl game every season this millennium and still haven't lost. That's 7 in a row. But each year since 2002 the margin of victory has decreased, with a 1 point victory last year against Navy. So what about Michigan State? They haven't even been to a bowl game since 2003, where they got manhandled 17-3 by Nebraska. So that means nobody on the roster has ever played a down in a bowl game. Experience counts here. Knowing how to handle the long layoff swamped with preparation and rest. But on top of this, I'm looking to BC's senior QB Matt Ryan as the X-factor. It's his last collegiate game. You know he's going to come out guns blazing. And I don't think his teammates will allow themselves to lose another big game. They may have blown a shot at a BCS game, but they will want to finish strong.
Trends: Michigan State: 2-7 ATS in December since '92/ 2-5 in bowl games since '92/ 5-1 against teams with winning record this season/ 34.1 ppg offense, 26.8 ppg defense
Boston College: 8-3 in bowl games since '92/ 7-3 in December since '92/ 28.6 ppg offense, 20.3 ppg defense. 2-3 in the last 5 games (include: 3 points over Clemson, 14 points over Miami)
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Michigan State 33 Boston College 27
Predicted Score: Boston College 31 Michigan State 27
Confidence:
What: Texas Bowl
Who: Houston vs. TCU
Where/When: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX. December 28, 8 pm, NFL Network (what a crock that is)
Spread (as of 12/16): TCU -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: TCU -3.5
Why: Cougars and Horned Frogs. So at least we know one Athletic Director had his head screwed on right. I can never understand why you would name your mascot a "Horned Frog." If there is some history to that, please, do tell. Anyway, I'm sure people will want to bring up the fact that the game is being played in Houston. Well, it's not like TCU stands for Tasty Cracker-Barrel University. I'm sure that place will be split up enough where both sides will be cheered for. So let's look at the matchup. The biggest issue is Houston's lack of a coach. I think this is why the Horned Frogs are favored 3.5 instead of it being an even spread. Now, although TCU has a top notch defense (allowed only 19.2 ppg) they are facing a top notch Houston offense (36.2 ppg). Yet, isn't that the head coach's doing? TCU has gotten progressively worse since their nearly undefeated season in 2005 (11-1, 11-2, 7-5). I'm not saying they are on the decline, but they sure as heck aren't getting better. Yet, TCU is 2-0 in their last 2 bowl games, which shows experience in the big game. Meanwhile, Houston is 0-2 in their last 2 bowl games. I like the better team who knows who their coach is. Houston has only been decent because of coach Art Brites' offensive scheme anyway.
Trends: TCU: 26.6 ppg offense, 19.2 ppg defense.
Houston: 36.2 ppg offense, 29.9 ppg defense.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: TCU 45 Houston 38
Predicted Score: TCU 52 Houston 28
Confidence:
What: Emerald Bowl
Who: Oregon State vs. Maryland
Where/When: AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA. December 28, 8:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Oregon St. -5
Eisentower30's pick: Maryland +5
Why: Two hopeful seasons gone terribly wrong. You got two pissed off squads who know they deserve better than a game sponsored by nuts. Although I do love the commercials. And I have to say, seeing the former site of Barry Bonds' steroid-induced home run binge turned into a football stadium is kind of cool. What was I talking about? Oh yeah, the game. Maryland has been Jekyll and Hype this season. No, I didn't misspell anything. Every time they get on TV, the commentators can't shut up about the talent. Keon Lattimore this, Lance Ball that. About Ralph Freidgen's eating habits ( visual aid). Or bringing up Lattimore is the younger brother of Ray Lewis. But wait, does Oregon State even have a single well-known player to talk about? Don't give me anything about who's playing on whose coast. Maryland will have plenty of time to adjust when they get there a few days early. So what if Oregon State beat an overrated, but still #2 at the time, California team on the road and #17 Oregon (without Dennis Dixon) on the road. Don't forget their 24-3 beatdown at the hands of USC. They are just as inconsistent as Maryland. At least Maryland played teams close, besides West Virginia. They beat a rolling #10 Rutgers team 34-24 on the road, lost to #19 Virginia by a point, and were a touchdown short of #8 Boston College. I know I've said some nasty things about the Terrapins today, but I still think they are the better team.
Trends: Maryland: 24.9 ppg offense, 21.6 ppg defense. 3-1 ATS in bowl games since '92. 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-10 points this season.
Oregon State: 28.4 ppg offense, 23.3 ppg defense. 3-3 ATS in bowl games since '92. 1-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points this season.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Oregon State 45 Maryland 28
Predicted Score: Oregon State 27 Maryland 26
Confidence:
What: Meineke Car Care Bowl
Who: #25 Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Where/When: Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. December 29, 1 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Wake Forest -3
Eisentower30's pick: Wake Forest -3
Why: This game is really tough to call. It's going to have to come down to the wire. Neither team really stands out from the other. How similar are they? Both beat Duke. Both lost 17-16 to Virginia. And both schools care more about basketball even though they pretend to love their football teams. This season, when the spreads were +3 to -3, both teams were 3-0 ATS. Creepy. The Huskies are known for their poor road play. UConn went 2-3 on the road, only beating Duke and Pittsburgh. But both teams were spread-covering machines this year (UConn 8-3, Wake 8-4). So, I'm going to count the hanging chads one by one. Here's why I like Wake Forest: 1) UConn's inability to perform away from home.2) Wake is practically playing a home game 80 miles from campus. 3) I feel UConn's focus this year was a Big East title. They got their share of it. What else do they really want/care about? Free 21 point inspection coupons from Meineke if they win? College players don't just give up bowl games after missing some lofty, preseason goal. But I can't see the Huskies getting up enough for this game to cover.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Wake Forest 17 Connecticut 14
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 17
Confidence:
What: Autozone Liberty Bowl
Who: Mississippi State vs. Central Florida
Where/When: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN. December 29, 4:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): UCF -3
Eisentower30's pick: UCF -3 (or 10, or 15)
Why: There is absolutely only one thing that matters in this game. Can Mississippi State stop Kevin Smith? This game is the D-1 equivalent to the D-3 National Championship Game in terms of one player's ability to win the entire game himself. Mount Union is the most dominant dynasty in all of sports today, but it could do nothing to stop Justin Beaver of Whitewater and his 256 yards rushing. That's why we have a new champ. And that is why UCF will destroy Miss. St. I love this game even more since the spread is only 3. Vegas is going to benefit so much by the fact that everybody knows Sylvester Croom and his abilities, while still few know about Kevin Smith. That is a damn shame. The world will discover Kevin Smith after he dumps 200+ yards and 4 TDs on the Croomdogs. Every feel-good story has an ending. Sorry Sly.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: UCF 37 Miss. St. 29
Predicted Score: UCF 35 Miss. St. 13
Confidence:
What: Valero Alamo Bowl
Who: Texas A&M vs. Penn State
Where/When: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX. December 29, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Penn St. -5.5
Eisentower30's pick: Penn St. -5.5
Why: Does anybody else think A&M deserves to be banned from a bowl appearance this season because of their idiot coach? Well, it doesn't matter anymore does it? They'll get embarrassed yet again anyway. When was the last time you remember A&M playing two good games in a row? Look it up. It never happened this season. The big concern should be the fact that everything points to a Penn State defensive showcase. Texas A&M prides itself on the ability to run the ball. The "three-headed monster" as many people call it. What does that make Penn State's rush defense? "Beowulf"? They've allowed 87.9 rush yards per game. 87.9!! Remember what happened to A&M at Miami earlier this season? Destroyed. By a team that has nothing good to say about itself for 2007 except a late victory against FSU. Why did the Canes win? They stopped the run. A&M has no chance unless they line up 10 cheeseburgers at the goal line and hand off to Jorvorskie Lane. All hope is lost. Especially if they have to rely on their 187.2 passing yards per game. Or their 416 yards allowed per game. Let's also mention the 500 to 1 factor. This is JoePa's 500th game. A milestone I don't see him adding an "L" to. This will also be game #1 for Aggies interim coach Gary Darnell. Oh, and one more thing. JoePa is 22-10 in bowl games (A&M as a program has only won 8 bowl games). This game could be played at A&M's home field and they'd still lose. Who cares about the Alamodome?
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Texas A&M 37 Penn State 23
Predicted Score: Penn State 24 Texas A&M 2 (I'll at least give them a botched punt in the endzone)
Confidence:
What: Petrosun Independence Bowl
Who: Colorado vs. Alabama
Where/When: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA. December 30, 8 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): Alabama -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: Colorado +3.5
Why: Both these teams had games where the only words that come to mind are inexcusable and joke. Alabama's loss to Louisiana-Monroe and Colorado's 47-20 loss to Kansas State were both embarrassing. Looking back at Colorado's season, you can tell they were not focused on the year as a whole, but simply the games that mattered to them. They showed up against Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas Tech. But when they lost, they lost ugly, including 4 of the last 6 games. Same goes for Alabama. Starting off 6-2 wasn't too bad. Both losses were tough teams in Georgia and Florida State. The come the 4 straight losses. First then-#2 LSU (understandable), then Mississippi State (up and coming program), followed by Louisiana-Monroe (who mixed the Gatorade!?) and rival Auburn. It's safe to say they are not a hot team right now. But all that is said and done. By kickoff, It will have been over a month since their last loss. This team can recover mentally. Win this game and work to next season. I think the Tide can do that. With a good coach and some solid players, they have the talent to win. But I'm going to take the points here and the outside chance Colorado wins outright. Some things to take note of: Colorado is 0-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. Alabama is 1-3 as a favorite of 3.5-10 points. Most notably, the Crimson Tide are an abysmal 3-8 ATS all of 2007. On the road, the Tide averaged 17.4 ppg on offense. I'm loving the simulated score here.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: Colorado 29 Alabama 28
Predicted Score: Colorado 29 Alabama 28
Confidence:
What: Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Who: Air Force vs. California
Where/When: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX. December 31, 12:30 pm, ESPN
Spread (as of 12/16): California -3.5
Eisentower30's pick: California -3.5
Why: Talent vs. Honor. That's what I'm dubbing this game. Air Force is playing in a bowl that sounds made for them, while California can't be happy with where they landed. The service academies always give their best when provided an opportunity to show the world what they've got. They don't always win, but playing hard is easy. I just don't see how they can match up with a team of California's athleticism. They may have struggled at random times this year, but all the Golden Bears need is a good game from DeSean Jackson. The superstar didn't reach anyone's expectations, even the naysayers. Yet, he can still open up a can on any team. If Cal was playing Navy, I'd say Cal has no chance. But it's Air Force. What do they know about playing in a bowl game? About preparing for weeks without a real game? Nothing. The Falcons haven't played in a bowl game since 2003, let alone won one since 2000. So once again you've got a team of guys with zero bowl experience. When you look at numbers, everything changes. Air Force is 9-2 ATS this season. California is 3-9 ATS this season. As a favorite, the Golden Bears are 32-55 ATS since '92, while Air Force is 38-31. It's a tough call because as much as those numbers stand out, I don't want to get caught up in the past. There's got to be a reason a storied football program is only 3.5 point favorites over a service academy. In the end I'm going to say that California has seen much tougher squads than Air Force has this season. Maybe Air Force will forget their winning ways of 6-1 in the 2nd half this year after a 40+ day layoff. Cal wins late.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Result: California 65 Air Force 10
Predicted Score: California 24 Air Force 20
Confidence:
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