Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Warning: Avid Buckeye hater's opinion follows...
The final game of the year has been bestowed upon us and the nation couldn't be downplaying it any more. This is supposed to be one of the most anticipated athletic events of the year. Yet, the public doesn't seem to be catching on this season because of the mayhem that put us where we are now. But don't overlook this matchup. It's still a premiere one that will turn out a truly exciting game. You're talking about two teams that make a living off winning the close games and executing their own game plans. Well, one of them has to skip a beat. That's what it comes down to.
There are so many factors in a football game to focus on when you try to predict a winner (or a spread coverer). So let's get to it!
The Spread: LSU -4
The Line Movement: This game opened up with LSU as 6.5 point favorites. The line has dipped to only 4. Four. I hate that number! But the fact that 72% of the public is on LSU and they want even more people to back the Tigers with the margin of victory shrinking 2.5 more points. This shows Vegas taking advantage of the side they think will lose. The more who take LSU, in their opinion, the more money they will win. Advantage: Ohio State
The Averages: Offense: OSU- 203.3 rushing ypg, 195.8 passing ypg. LSU- 220.6 rushing ypg, 229.2 passing ypg. Defense: OSU- 80.5 rushing ypg, 148.2 passing ypg. LSU- 105.2 rushing ypg, 180.8 passing ypg. Points For: OSU- 32.0, LSU- 38.7. Points Against: OSU- 10.7, LSU- 19.6. Advantage: Draw
Against The Spreads: Overall on the season, Ohio State was 7-4 ATS with LSU a miserable 4-7-2 (basically 4-9). Ohio State is 0-6 ATS against the SEC in the last 15 years, but the only team they played and lost to in the last 3 years was last year's Florida massacre. So I'm that statistic out the window. Ohio State is 24-11 ATS in the past 3 years. But the Buckeyes are only 5-9 ATS in the last 15 years, 1-1 in the past 3. Meanwhile, LSU is 7-3 ATS in bowl games in the past 15 years, 2-0 in the last 3. Ohio State has not been an underdog of 3.5-10 points in at least the last 3 seasons. On the other hand, LSU as a favorite of 3.5-10 points is 1-5 ATS in the last 3 seasons, 0-2 this year. The point is, Ohio State covers spreads, while LSU does not. Advantage: Ohio State
Strength of Schedule: It's no surprise that Ohio State's schedule is not as intense as LSU's. The BCS strength of schedule rankings list the Buckeyes at 62nd with the Tigers at 21. Also on that list were two categories of each team vs. top-10 tanked squads and top-30 ranked teams. Vs Top 10: LSU 2-0, OSU 0-0. Vs Top 30: LSU 4-2, OSU 3-1. LSU clearly has more experience playing talented teams, whereas Ohio State is obviously able to play on the big stage but has yet to preview it this season. Advantage: LSU
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Final 3 games of the season are the focus here. Ohio State went 2-1 beating that respective week's #21 team (Wisconsin, Michigan) twice and losing to unranked Illinois. LSU closed out at 2-1 also. Beating Ole Miss then losing to Darren McFadden before edging out #14 Tennessee in the SEC Championship. The only thing LSU has going for them in this category is the fact their season ended 2 weeks later than Ohio State's, but considering both teams aren't plagued with injuries they need to heal, that's a null point. Advantage: Ohio State
What Happens In The Neutral Zone Stays In The Neutral Zone: The most physical aspect of a guaranteed physical game is going to be overlooked. Nobody really sees the intensity of O-Lines and D-Lines after the snap. This game will have plenty of it. There's no question Ohio State has a better Offensive Line while LSU has the superior Defensive Line. So when these two mammoth lines clash you'll hear it. The question is who will win those underrated wars. That's the key to being able to stick to a game plan. If Glenn Dorsey is as healthy as he should be and Kirston Pittman brings all of his 12.5 tackles for loss in 2007, Todd Boeckman won't be able to relax all day. There's no doubt he'll be picking chunks of grass out of his facemask a few times (I say 3 sacks), but the plays in between. The vertical ones not the short, conservative, Tressel style, but the plays they use to open it up are where it matters. If he gets good protection and makes good decisions he will have success. And if that happens on the big plays, OSU will win that factor. But that's a big IF. It's more likely that LSU will bring plenty of blitz packages and force the nation's 63rd ranked turnover margin to show its true colors. Meanwhile, LSU is ranked 3rd in that category. If LSU gets over 3 sacks they win outright. Advantage: LSU
Coach Knows Best: Jim Tressel vs. Les Miles. Conservative vs. Unpredictable. Look, I respect Tressel and all he's done for that program. He beats Michigan. He prepares well for games. He recruits well. He gives a shit about his own team. But amidst all this, I hate his coaching style. It works for him and the players he recruits, but I can't stand it. It's too conservative. To me, a team is never going to reach its full ability unless you open up the passing game and throw the deep ball. He's got the running game to set those plays up but only uses them two or three times a game. If it's 4th and 1 he kicks a field goal. We all know what Les Miles does on 4th and 1. Fakes, options, triple reverse option pass shenanigans. It's fun to watch and his players believe in him enough to succeed with it as bizarre as it sounds. But most importantly, it's unpredictable. You can't just attack one facet of Les Miles' game because right when you do he'll switch it up on you. It doesn't hurt to have the speed LSU has. But that's part of recruiting to the playbook. In the end, Tressel has the better track record and is no rookie in the big games (This will be his 9th appearance in a national title game at any level of college football). We don't really know what Miles will pull out for this game. Will he be nervous and not risk it or keep his crazy gameplan or lack thereof and be unpredictable. Advantage: Ohio State
Home Field Advantage?: Last time the national championship was here the LSU Tigers were playing in it. They don't exactly call New Orleans their home, but it's pretty darn close. And although Ohio State fans travel as well, if not better, than anybody else in the country, you can't outnumber a "home" crowd. But here's the thing. When Ohio State fans follow their team, they make it their personal mission to outscream the home crowd. I hate Ohio State fans. They are an obnoxious, loud, ignorant breed. I respect their devotion. I really do. I wish Miami had fans like them, with more class, but that will never happen. It's this crazy fan base that will make the game one of the louder in recent memory along with the most UN-lopsided backyard game for LSU. If you don't think these people want redemption from last year's embarrassment, you are in for something else. In may be in Louisiana, but the Buckeye fans will be there in full force. Advantage: Ohio State
The Verdict: LSU is faster. OSU is smarter. LSU is sneaky. OSU uses brute strength. I loathe Ohio State. I will never put "THE" in front of their school because that is the dumbest touch to a school name in history. At least calling itself "The U" is interesting and unique. But trying to take a monopoly on using the word "the" in front of your school? C'mon. I'll never get over that Fiesta Bowl in 2002 and it initiated my hatred for all things Buckeye. But going to school in Ohio and having to listen to these psychotic people burn sofas, throw chairs off balconies, run around screaming the hallways like madmen when their team wins a game they were supposed to win has made me sick. They couldn't be more polar opposite of the actual team they cheer for. I respect the Buckeye football program. They've become top-tier without resorting to excessive trash-talking, fighting, cheating, or recruiting in the state of Michigan. That's not easy these days. I respect them. But hey, let's not forget what LSU did to the Hurricanes last season. After whooping on the Canes in one of the program's most frustrating and tumultuous seasons, they proceed to rumble with "The U" in the tunnel. Screw that. Don't be like FIU. So, I hate both these teams equally. Just enough to never root for them on a personal level, but I'm sane enough to not put money against a team because of personal feelings. That said, who's going to win this game? By how much? 4 points is a crappy line. I'm upset with Vegas for that. But this game is so close in my opinion to going either way. If LSU were favored 2.5 or fewer I'd have taken them. But Ohio State has dominated the Advantages today and their ability to potential walk away victorious leads me to put it on OSU +4. You just need to take those points. If and when this game comes down to the final play. Even if LSU has the ball. They'll either be down 4 and get the TD or if it's tied, they'll work it off for a FG. LSU will not win by more than 4. Jim Tressel's infamous SEC losing streak comes to an end. Last year is history. This year is the year of the Buckeye (unfortunately). And that's a fact, Reader.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Score: Ohio State 54 LSU 33
Battle of the Mascots: A buckeye is a nut commonly found in Ohio that is poisonous when ingested. You know what a Tiger is. This could be considered a draw as the poison would kill the tiger, but upon being ingested the nut can no longer survive. Since it is on grass at the 50-yard line, draw it is. Advantage: Draw
27 
24
Game MVP: OSU RB, Chris "Beanie" Wells- 128 yds, 2 TD
The final game of the year has been bestowed upon us and the nation couldn't be downplaying it any more. This is supposed to be one of the most anticipated athletic events of the year. Yet, the public doesn't seem to be catching on this season because of the mayhem that put us where we are now. But don't overlook this matchup. It's still a premiere one that will turn out a truly exciting game. You're talking about two teams that make a living off winning the close games and executing their own game plans. Well, one of them has to skip a beat. That's what it comes down to.
There are so many factors in a football game to focus on when you try to predict a winner (or a spread coverer). So let's get to it!
The Spread: LSU -4
The Line Movement: This game opened up with LSU as 6.5 point favorites. The line has dipped to only 4. Four. I hate that number! But the fact that 72% of the public is on LSU and they want even more people to back the Tigers with the margin of victory shrinking 2.5 more points. This shows Vegas taking advantage of the side they think will lose. The more who take LSU, in their opinion, the more money they will win. Advantage: Ohio State
The Averages: Offense: OSU- 203.3 rushing ypg, 195.8 passing ypg. LSU- 220.6 rushing ypg, 229.2 passing ypg. Defense: OSU- 80.5 rushing ypg, 148.2 passing ypg. LSU- 105.2 rushing ypg, 180.8 passing ypg. Points For: OSU- 32.0, LSU- 38.7. Points Against: OSU- 10.7, LSU- 19.6. Advantage: Draw
Against The Spreads: Overall on the season, Ohio State was 7-4 ATS with LSU a miserable 4-7-2 (basically 4-9). Ohio State is 0-6 ATS against the SEC in the last 15 years, but the only team they played and lost to in the last 3 years was last year's Florida massacre. So I'm that statistic out the window. Ohio State is 24-11 ATS in the past 3 years. But the Buckeyes are only 5-9 ATS in the last 15 years, 1-1 in the past 3. Meanwhile, LSU is 7-3 ATS in bowl games in the past 15 years, 2-0 in the last 3. Ohio State has not been an underdog of 3.5-10 points in at least the last 3 seasons. On the other hand, LSU as a favorite of 3.5-10 points is 1-5 ATS in the last 3 seasons, 0-2 this year. The point is, Ohio State covers spreads, while LSU does not. Advantage: Ohio State
Strength of Schedule: It's no surprise that Ohio State's schedule is not as intense as LSU's. The BCS strength of schedule rankings list the Buckeyes at 62nd with the Tigers at 21. Also on that list were two categories of each team vs. top-10 tanked squads and top-30 ranked teams. Vs Top 10: LSU 2-0, OSU 0-0. Vs Top 30: LSU 4-2, OSU 3-1. LSU clearly has more experience playing talented teams, whereas Ohio State is obviously able to play on the big stage but has yet to preview it this season. Advantage: LSU
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Final 3 games of the season are the focus here. Ohio State went 2-1 beating that respective week's #21 team (Wisconsin, Michigan) twice and losing to unranked Illinois. LSU closed out at 2-1 also. Beating Ole Miss then losing to Darren McFadden before edging out #14 Tennessee in the SEC Championship. The only thing LSU has going for them in this category is the fact their season ended 2 weeks later than Ohio State's, but considering both teams aren't plagued with injuries they need to heal, that's a null point. Advantage: Ohio State
What Happens In The Neutral Zone Stays In The Neutral Zone: The most physical aspect of a guaranteed physical game is going to be overlooked. Nobody really sees the intensity of O-Lines and D-Lines after the snap. This game will have plenty of it. There's no question Ohio State has a better Offensive Line while LSU has the superior Defensive Line. So when these two mammoth lines clash you'll hear it. The question is who will win those underrated wars. That's the key to being able to stick to a game plan. If Glenn Dorsey is as healthy as he should be and Kirston Pittman brings all of his 12.5 tackles for loss in 2007, Todd Boeckman won't be able to relax all day. There's no doubt he'll be picking chunks of grass out of his facemask a few times (I say 3 sacks), but the plays in between. The vertical ones not the short, conservative, Tressel style, but the plays they use to open it up are where it matters. If he gets good protection and makes good decisions he will have success. And if that happens on the big plays, OSU will win that factor. But that's a big IF. It's more likely that LSU will bring plenty of blitz packages and force the nation's 63rd ranked turnover margin to show its true colors. Meanwhile, LSU is ranked 3rd in that category. If LSU gets over 3 sacks they win outright. Advantage: LSU
Coach Knows Best: Jim Tressel vs. Les Miles. Conservative vs. Unpredictable. Look, I respect Tressel and all he's done for that program. He beats Michigan. He prepares well for games. He recruits well. He gives a shit about his own team. But amidst all this, I hate his coaching style. It works for him and the players he recruits, but I can't stand it. It's too conservative. To me, a team is never going to reach its full ability unless you open up the passing game and throw the deep ball. He's got the running game to set those plays up but only uses them two or three times a game. If it's 4th and 1 he kicks a field goal. We all know what Les Miles does on 4th and 1. Fakes, options, triple reverse option pass shenanigans. It's fun to watch and his players believe in him enough to succeed with it as bizarre as it sounds. But most importantly, it's unpredictable. You can't just attack one facet of Les Miles' game because right when you do he'll switch it up on you. It doesn't hurt to have the speed LSU has. But that's part of recruiting to the playbook. In the end, Tressel has the better track record and is no rookie in the big games (This will be his 9th appearance in a national title game at any level of college football). We don't really know what Miles will pull out for this game. Will he be nervous and not risk it or keep his crazy gameplan or lack thereof and be unpredictable. Advantage: Ohio State
Home Field Advantage?: Last time the national championship was here the LSU Tigers were playing in it. They don't exactly call New Orleans their home, but it's pretty darn close. And although Ohio State fans travel as well, if not better, than anybody else in the country, you can't outnumber a "home" crowd. But here's the thing. When Ohio State fans follow their team, they make it their personal mission to outscream the home crowd. I hate Ohio State fans. They are an obnoxious, loud, ignorant breed. I respect their devotion. I really do. I wish Miami had fans like them, with more class, but that will never happen. It's this crazy fan base that will make the game one of the louder in recent memory along with the most UN-lopsided backyard game for LSU. If you don't think these people want redemption from last year's embarrassment, you are in for something else. In may be in Louisiana, but the Buckeye fans will be there in full force. Advantage: Ohio State
The Verdict: LSU is faster. OSU is smarter. LSU is sneaky. OSU uses brute strength. I loathe Ohio State. I will never put "THE" in front of their school because that is the dumbest touch to a school name in history. At least calling itself "The U" is interesting and unique. But trying to take a monopoly on using the word "the" in front of your school? C'mon. I'll never get over that Fiesta Bowl in 2002 and it initiated my hatred for all things Buckeye. But going to school in Ohio and having to listen to these psychotic people burn sofas, throw chairs off balconies, run around screaming the hallways like madmen when their team wins a game they were supposed to win has made me sick. They couldn't be more polar opposite of the actual team they cheer for. I respect the Buckeye football program. They've become top-tier without resorting to excessive trash-talking, fighting, cheating, or recruiting in the state of Michigan. That's not easy these days. I respect them. But hey, let's not forget what LSU did to the Hurricanes last season. After whooping on the Canes in one of the program's most frustrating and tumultuous seasons, they proceed to rumble with "The U" in the tunnel. Screw that. Don't be like FIU. So, I hate both these teams equally. Just enough to never root for them on a personal level, but I'm sane enough to not put money against a team because of personal feelings. That said, who's going to win this game? By how much? 4 points is a crappy line. I'm upset with Vegas for that. But this game is so close in my opinion to going either way. If LSU were favored 2.5 or fewer I'd have taken them. But Ohio State has dominated the Advantages today and their ability to potential walk away victorious leads me to put it on OSU +4. You just need to take those points. If and when this game comes down to the final play. Even if LSU has the ball. They'll either be down 4 and get the TD or if it's tied, they'll work it off for a FG. LSU will not win by more than 4. Jim Tressel's infamous SEC losing streak comes to an end. Last year is history. This year is the year of the Buckeye (unfortunately). And that's a fact, Reader.
NCAA Football 2008 Simulation Score: Ohio State 54 LSU 33
Battle of the Mascots: A buckeye is a nut commonly found in Ohio that is poisonous when ingested. You know what a Tiger is. This could be considered a draw as the poison would kill the tiger, but upon being ingested the nut can no longer survive. Since it is on grass at the 50-yard line, draw it is. Advantage: Draw
27 24Game MVP: OSU RB, Chris "Beanie" Wells- 128 yds, 2 TD
Home field advantage to OSU????
What it God's name would give you that idea? The only reason Ohio State even has a following is because they are a perrenial powerhouse...Ohio is filled with so many fair weathered fans it makes your Miami look like the biggest bunch of loyals ever. Everyone was a Browns fan this year, but all the Bengals went into hiding. When Romeo Crennel shits the bed again this year with the Browns, and the Bengals go 8-8, though highly unlikely, everyone will be wearing stripes. Last year Ohio State basketball was a sellout crowd. Three years ago, 99% of people wouldn't have been able to distinguish Thad Motta from Derek Anderson. What a joke. I knew Ohio State would be way outnumbered at this NC game not only because the fans suck, but because they couldn't borrow their neighbors car or pay for the ticket to get there!
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